Junk Wax 2.0? Fanatics Overproduction Has Sports Card Collectors Worried
With over 429 million cards produced for recent NBA products and base card values collapsing, veteran collectors are sounding the alarm about a repeat of the junk wax era.
History Repeating Itself?
Veteran collectors are raising alarms that echo a dark chapter in hobby history. With Fanatics Topps producing over 429 million cards for recent NBA products alone — translating to more than 1.26 million copies of each base card — the parallels to the late 1980s and early 1990s junk wax era are impossible to ignore.
The sports card market is booming on paper. Analysts project growth from \$33.6 billion in 2024 to a staggering \$271.2 billion by 2034. But beneath those headline numbers, cracks are forming that should concern every collector.
The Numbers That Should Worry You
Topps Update production surged 39.8 percent in 2025, flooding the secondary market and compressing card values across the board. Collectors report spending \$500 or more on retail boxes and walking away with nothing but base cards and minimal resale value. The complaints are mounting:
- Diluted hit rates — More packs produced means autographs and premium inserts are spread thinner across a larger print run
- Quality control failures — Defects, collation problems, and missing inserts plagued multiple 2025 releases
- Base card value collapse — Common base cards and standard inserts hold virtually zero resale value
- Preferential treatment — High-volume buyers and breakers reportedly receive better case allocations, leaving retail collectors at a disadvantage
The Fanatics Factor
Fanatics now holds major licensing agreements across the MLB, NFL, and NBA, consolidating control over the sports card market in a way never seen before. While consolidation can bring efficiencies, it also removes the competitive pressure that historically kept production volumes in check. When Panini, Topps, and Upper Deck all competed for collector dollars, each brand had an incentive to maintain scarcity and quality.
What Collectors Can Do
The lesson from the original junk wax era is clear: when everyone has the same cards, nobody has anything valuable. Smart collectors in 2026 are focusing on high-end graded rookies, vintage pieces, and limited-run products rather than chasing base set completions. The hobby is not doomed, but it desperately needs production restraint and greater transparency from its largest manufacturer.
Support your local card shops — they are often the best source of advice on which products offer real value. Find one near you with the Card Shop Finder.