Caleb Williams and Jayden Daniels Were Both Carted Off Sunday. Here Is What an Injury Actually Does to a Quarterback's Card Market.
The top two picks of the 2024 NFL Draft both left Week 2 on a cart: Williams with a hamstring injury and Daniels with a second dislocation of the same elbow in under a year. Six days after Williams' cards jumped 30 percent, here is how injury markets behave and what to do with each.
Two Franchise Quarterbacks, Two Carts, One Sunday
Caleb Williams and Jayden Daniels went first and second in the 2024 NFL Draft, both won Heismans, and both have been treated by the card market as the two safest young quarterback bets in the sport. On Sunday, September 20, both left their games on a cart. Williams suffered a non-contact hamstring injury scrambling in the fourth quarter of Chicago's 9-3 loss to Minnesota. Daniels dislocated his left elbow again in Washington's game at Dallas, the same elbow he dislocated in Week 9 last season.
Six days ago we wrote about Williams' cards jumping roughly 30 percent after a 59-point Week 1. That is exactly why this matters: the market had priced in a breakout season, and now it has to price in an MRI.
What Is Actually Known
- Williams: Ruled out with a hamstring injury. He was walking in the locker room afterward with a slight limp, and the Bears will not know the severity until Monday's MRI. Coach Ben Johnson said he was relieved it was not the knee but acknowledged a hamstring "could be pretty damaging as well." The worst case is a Dak Prescott-style tendon avulsion, which required surgery and a four-month recovery in 2024. Chicago's next game is Monday night against Philadelphia, which buys an extra day.
- Daniels: Imaging showed no fracture, with more tests Monday. This is the second dislocation of the same elbow in under a year; he missed five weeks with the first one, returned, tweaked it, and missed the final four games. Orthopedic surgeon David Chao noted publicly that a joint comes out easier the second time because the original ligament tear heals looser. Marcus Mariota takes over for an 0-2 Commanders team.
How Quarterback Cards Behave After an Injury
There is a fairly consistent pattern, and it is worth knowing before you react.
The first 48 hours overshoot
Sellers who bought at the top panic first. Low-population, high-grade rookies (Prizm Silver PSA 10s, Optic Holos, National Treasures RPAs) tend to see a handful of below-market sales in the first two days as nervous holders hit whatever bids exist. Those sales then become the comps everyone quotes, which drags asking prices down further than the injury justifies.
The MRI sets the floor
Once the diagnosis is public, the market reprices to the timeline. A two-to-four-week hamstring strain is usually a 10 to 20 percent dip that recovers within a month of the player returning. A surgical injury or a season-ending designation is a different market entirely, and prices can stay depressed until the following training camp.
Repeat injuries carry a permanent discount
This is the Daniels problem. A second dislocation of the same joint in under a year makes durability part of his profile, the same way it did for players like Tua Tagovailoa. Even when he returns, buyers will ask for a discount that was not there in August.
What to Do With Each Market
- Holding Williams: Wait for the MRI. If it is a strain, the Bears' Monday night game against Philadelphia gives him a realistic chance to be back within a few weeks, and the 30 percent Week 1 bump will not fully unwind. Selling into Monday morning's panic is the worst option.
- Buying Williams: If the diagnosis is a routine strain, the first week is the window. Target graded base rookies (Prizm, Optic, Select) where the discount is easiest to measure against pre-injury comps.
- Holding Daniels: The honest read is that this is a longer story. If you were planning to sell before the playoffs, the elbow history has now made that a harder sale in any timeframe. If you are a long-term holder, nothing about his talent changed.
- Buying Daniels: Only at a discount that reflects the repeat injury, not the single event. Compare to his prices after the first dislocation last November, not to August.
- Do not chase the backups. Tyson Bagent and Marcus Mariota cards will spike on Monday. They almost always give it back.
The Broader 2024 QB Class
Williams and Daniels were the two cards holding up the 2024 quarterback class. Drake Maye, Bo Nix and Michael Penix Jr. now carry more of the class's attention by default, and Prizm and Optic sealed product from 2024 tends to soften when its top two chase rookies are on the shelf. If you were considering 2024 football wax, this week will likely offer better prices than last week did.
Local shops see injury-driven selling before the comps update. If you want a real-time read on a player's market, talk to a dealer. Use our directory to find a card shop near you.