Sal Stewart Has NL Rookie of the Year Locked. The AL Race Is Still Open, and So Is the Card Market.
Two weeks from the end of the season, Stewart is a minus 2500 favorite and McGonigle is only minus 800. Where Messick, Murakami, Wetherholt and McLean fit, and which rookie cards are pricing in the wrong outcome.
The MLB regular season ends in less than two weeks and the Rookie of the Year races are nearly settled. That matters more to card collectors than most award races, because a ROY award is the single most reliable price catalyst a rookie card gets outside of a playoff run, and because Bowman Chrome's Red Rookie Redemption pays out on exactly this result. Here is where both races stand and which cards are pricing in the outcome.
National League: Sal Stewart, and it is not close
The Reds first baseman leads the majors in RBIs, well past 105 entering September and climbing. No rookie has led the league in RBIs since 1950. He has 31 home runs, second-most by a Reds rookie behind Frank Robinson's 38 in 1956, plus 25 doubles and double-digit steals. The only other rookie in history with 30 homers, 100 RBIs, 25 doubles and 10 steals is Jose Canseco in 1986. Sportsbooks have him around minus 2500, which is the number they post when the race is over.
The card market has known this for a while. Stewart's Bowman Chrome 1st autographs have been the most active rookie market in baseball for two months. There is not much left to buy cheaply here, but there is a specific reason to hold: the Bowman Chrome Red Rookie Redemption. Anyone who pulled a Stewart red redemption from the September 9 release is holding a card that becomes something meaningful the day the award is announced in November.
The contenders, and why they matter anyway
JJ Wetherholt of the Cardinals ranks third in all of baseball in defensive runs saved and outs above average, behind only Bobby Witt Jr. and Pete Crow-Armstrong, and leads NL rookies in fWAR. A late wrist injury took him out of the race, but it did not take him out of the hobby. Elite defenders with average bats do not get expensive; if you believe in the bat improving, this is a quiet card to accumulate.
Nolan McLean of the Mets has a 2.05 ERA over his last eight starts and 172 strikeouts on the season. He is not going to catch Stewart, but he is the rookie pitcher most likely to be in a Cy Young conversation within two years, and his Topps Update Rookie Debut card is about to hit shelves.
Carson Benge, also a Met, is hitting .308 in the second half with 16 homers and 19 steals on a team that has been miserable to watch. Nobody is buying Benge cards right now, which is usually the right time.
American League: McGonigle is the favorite, but the door is open
Kevin McGonigle got a 150 million dollar extension 17 days into his rookie season, made the All-Star team, leads all rookies with 4.6 fWAR, and has drawn more walks than he has struck out. That is a ROY resume. But his August was ordinary, his counting stats are not eye-popping, and the sportsbooks have him at minus 800 rather than the minus 2500 they have on Stewart. There is a path for someone else.
That someone else is most likely Parker Messick. The Guardians lefty has a 2.46 ERA across 27 starts with 161 strikeouts and 43 walks in 161 innings, matches McGonigle's 4.6 fWAR, and was the only rookie pitcher selected to the All-Star Game. Rookie pitchers rarely win ROY over position players with a full season of production, but Messick has the numbers to make voters think.
Then there is Munetaka Murakami. He hit 20 home runs by the end of May, a record, and then missed a month with a hamstring injury. He leads AL rookies in home runs, OPS and wRC+ anyway. His .217 average will keep him from winning, but his card market has been the most volatile rookie market of the year and the power he has shown is exactly what the hobby pays for long-term.
How to play the last two weeks
- Stewart: hold anything you have. Do not chase at current prices unless you are buying a red redemption specifically for the award payout.
- McGonigle: the market is pricing him as a lock that he is not quite. If Messick steals it, McGonigle cards take a short-term hit that will be a buying opportunity for a player with a 150 million dollar contract.
- Messick: the value play. Rookie pitcher cards are cheap because pitchers are risky. A ROY award or even a strong second-place finish would reprice him.
- Murakami: volatile and worth watching. His card market rises and falls with his home run pace; a hot final two weeks changes the conversation.
The Bowman Chrome 1st cards for all of these players are sitting in shop showcases right now, and prices vary far more between shops than they do online. Use our directory to find a card shop near you and check the case before the awards are announced.