30th Celebration Pull Rates Are In: An SIR Every 21 Packs, and Nobody Knows the Odds on the Mews
TCGplayer opened 3,000 English packs of Pokemon 30th Celebration. Special Illustration Rares land about once every 21 packs, four times easier than Pitch Black, but the red, blue and green Mew secret rares were too rare to measure. Here are the rates, the top prices, and how to buy.
The Numbers Are In, and They Are Generous
A week after Pokemon TCG: 30th Celebration launched worldwide, we finally have pull rates. TCGplayer opened 3,000 English booster packs, and PokeBeach published the results on September 23. The short version: this is the friendliest modern Pokemon set to open, by a wide margin, with one very large exception.
Pull Rates From 3,000 English Packs
- Special Illustration Rare: 1 in 21 packs. For comparison, Pitch Black was 1 in 80. That is roughly four times easier than recent main sets.
- Illustration Rare: 1 in 5 packs, about twice as easy as Pitch Black's 1 in 9.
- Classic Collection reprint: 1 in 10 packs.
- Mewtwo ex and Mew ex Futuristic Rares: 1 in 120 packs, about 1.5 times rarer than a typical modern SIR.
- Red, Blue and Green Mew (RGB secret rares): not determined. Three thousand packs were not enough to pin them down.
That last point matters. The three RGB Mew cards sit at least in "gold card" territory. For reference, Pitch Black's Mega Darkrai ex gold was measured at 1 in 1,081 packs across 4,000 packs, and that was a single card. With three separate Mews, it will take a much larger sample to know the real rate for each one.
What Each Card Is Worth Right Now
Because 30th Celebration is the first set released in every language on the same day, this is also the first time collectors can directly compare English and Japanese prices for the same set from day one. Here are the top English values (TCGplayer) alongside Japan (Card Rush), as compiled by PokeBeach:
- Mew (Red RGB): $6,900 lowest English ask; about $4,094 in Japan
- Mew (Blue RGB): $5,499; about $3,462 in Japan
- Mew (Green RGB): $3,997; about $3,020 in Japan
- Crystal Lugia (Classic Collection): $255
- Charizard (Classic Collection): $185
- Mew ex SIR: $157
- Gengar ex SIR: $134
- Mew ex Futuristic Rare: $109
- Pikachu ex SIR (#150): $107
- Magikarp (Classic Collection): $104
The RGB Mew figures are lowest asks, not settled market prices, so treat them as a ceiling for now. Both markets rank the Mews red, then blue, then green. After that, the languages split: English buyers are paying more for SIRs like Gengar ex and Mewtwo ex, while Japanese buyers value the Base Set Pikachu reprint and the Mewtwo ex Futuristic Rare more highly.
What This Means If You Are Buying Packs
Run the math on an Elite Trainer Box. At $89.99 with nine packs, an average ETB should produce roughly two Illustration Rares, nearly one Classic Collection card, and a little under a 50 percent chance at an SIR. That is a far better experience than recent sets, where an ETB often yields nothing above a double rare.
But generous pull rates cut both ways. When SIRs are four times easier to pull, there are four times as many in circulation, and most will settle at lower prices than SIRs from tougher sets. Outside the RGB Mews, the set's value is concentrated in a handful of cards: Lugia, Charizard, the Mew and Gengar SIRs, and a few Pikachus.
A Simple Plan
- Opening for fun or to build a binder? This is the set to rip. You will hit something in nearly every few packs.
- Chasing one specific card? Buy the single. Prices on common hits will likely drift down as supply keeps landing.
- Hoping for an RGB Mew? Understand that you are playing a lottery with unknown odds. Do not budget around it.
Local card shops are getting fresh 30th Celebration allocations and usually have singles cases stocked with the hits people actually want. Use The Card Shop Finder to find a card shop near you and compare pack prices against the singles case.