Pokemon Chaos Rising Pull Rates: What Your Odds Really Are on a Booster Box
Early data on Mega Evolution Chaos Rising, which launched May 22, puts Special Illustration Rares at roughly one in 86 packs. With 36 packs per box, that means a single booster box has well under a 50 percent chance of containing any SIR at all. Here is the box-versus-singles math on the set's Mega ex chase cards.
Now that Mega Evolution — Chaos Rising has been out for a few days, the question every collector asks has moved from "what is in it" to "what are my actual odds." Chaos Rising launched May 22, 2026 as the fourth expansion in the Mega Evolution block, with a checklist north of 120 cards, and early pull-rate data is the number that should drive your buying decision. Here is the math on what a booster box really gets you.
The Headline Number: Roughly 1 in 86
The figure circulating from early box breaks is that the set's Special Illustration Rares are landing at a rate of about one in 86 packs. That single number reframes the whole product. A standard booster box holds 36 packs — so on average, you would need more than two full booster boxes to expect a single Special Illustration Rare. If a specific SIR is your target, the odds of pulling that exact card are dramatically longer than that, because the rate is spread across every SIR in the set.
- Set: Mega Evolution — Chaos Rising (4th expansion in the block).
- Released: May 22, 2026.
- Checklist: 120-plus cards.
- SIR pull rate: approximately 1 in 86 packs.
What That Means for a Booster Box
Run the numbers and the picture is sobering for anyone buying sealed to hit the top chase. At 36 packs per box and a roughly 1-in-86 SIR rate, a single box has well under a 50 percent chance of containing any Special Illustration Rare at all. You will reliably pull the lower rarity tiers — regular ex cards, the Illustration Rares, and the Trainer cards tied to the Legends Z-A theme like the Lumiose City pieces — but the marquee SIRs are a genuine long shot per box.
"The pull rate is the tell. When the chase card sits behind a 1-in-86 wall, you are not buying a box to get it — you are buying a box and hoping. If you want the card, the singles market is almost always the cheaper path."
The Chase: Mega ex Special Illustration Rares
The cards driving the secondary market are the Mega Evolution ex Special Illustration Rares, led by the set's headline Mega Greninja ex, with the other Mega ex cards in the set — Floette, Pyroar, and Dragalge — rounding out the high-end chase. These are the cards with the full-art treatment and the thinnest supply, and they are where the box-versus-singles decision matters most.
Box vs. Singles: The Honest Math
Here is the framework that holds up across almost every modern set:
- Buy a box if you enjoy the rip itself, want a spread of playable cards, and treat any SIR as a bonus rather than the goal.
- Buy singles if there is one specific card you want. Paying market price for the exact SIR you are after is almost always cheaper than chasing it through sealed product at a 1-in-86 rate.
- Buy sealed to hold if you believe in the set's long-term appeal — but that is a separate bet from pulling the chase, and it depends on print run, not pull rate.
The Bottom Line
Pull rates are not trivia — they are the single most useful number for spending your hobby budget well. A roughly 1-in-86 SIR rate means Chaos Rising booster boxes are a fun rip and a fine source of playables, but a poor way to chase a specific Special Illustration Rare. If your heart is set on a particular Mega ex SIR, let someone else open the boxes and buy the single. Your wallet will thank you.